Many of the tried-and-true recession indicators are screaming recession. The yield curve has been inverted for 12 months and the money supply (M2) has fallen by 3.7% in the same period. So… where is it? This is perhaps the most widely predicted recession in history. But like we’ve said in previous commentaries, there’s no bullet …
The 0.1% monthly and 4.0% annual headline CPI report was certainly nice. It indicated the slowest twelve-month change since inflation became a problem two years ago. HOWEVER… The headline inflation was soothed by a 3.6% monthly drop in the energy complex. The Core CPI (excluding energy and food) clocked in at 5.2%, the second highest …
Two months ago we speculated that the Federal Reserve would continue its inflation fight “until inflation clearly was under control or something broke in the financial system”. We have witnessed two “breaks” with the failure of Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank. The question today is: Do these failures represent THE break, or are they …
Still Stuck Between A Rock And A Hard Place – An Update On The Fed’s Inflation Fight Read More »
All eyes have been fixed on the Federal Reserve over the past year, with investors and markets earnestly searching for cues as to where we might be headed – soft landing, crippling economic recession, or something in between. Predicting the severity of the landing may not be practical (for us or the Fed), however, we …
Still In The Box – A Review Of The Federal Reserve’s December Meeting Minutes Read More »
When we started writing about inflationary risks in January of 2021, we were on the leading edge… Since then, the markets have become obsessed with inflation reports and with Federal Reserve pronouncements regarding its inflation fight. Headlines lamenting “historic inflation” and “fast and large rate increases” have dominated news outlets over the last 9 months. …
By most measures, the U.S. Treasury yield curve is now inverted. When any selected shorter term rate is higher than a selected longer term rate, the curve is “inverted”. Most indicative in our work is the 2 year versus the 10 year, which is currently inverted by 0.51%. The yield curve typically inverts during periods …
Rates have been moving higher – for everything and everywhere. Where will they go from here? Not to be flippant, but it depends. From an empirical standpoint, the Fed is clearly “behind the curve” – meaning they have been late to the inflation fighting process. To be fair, there are some “transitory” contributors to inflation, …
Interest Rates: Where Are We In The Big Picture? Read More »
The Price to Earnings (P/E) ratio is a great tool to contextualize overarching trends in the stock market—including current strength, expected strength (or weakness), and vulnerability to shock. The P/E ratio is found in many forms. Trailing, Forward, Cyclically Adjusted, Discounted, Operating, Actual. They all move over time and the value of each requires an …
What The Forward P/E Ratio Can Tell Us About Stock Market Risk Today Read More »
Not all FAANGM stocks are created equal—a truth made apparent by Netflix’s recent stock price plunge following its earnings report. We all know the “FANG” stocks. They dominate the Nasdaq 100 index and are sometimes isolated into an index of their own. And known for high growth and as stay-at-home beneficiaries, the stock prices have …
What’s going on in the market today, and how might your business, your portfolios, and your clients be impacted? The Market Extract aims to provide a condensed, clear, and highly relevant view, with insights from Advanced Asset Management Advisors’ investment committee to you. The Fed has spoken. On June 16th, the Chairman alluded to talks …
Market Extract: Taper Talk, Cash Balance, and Growth vs. Value Read More »