We’ve said (and reiterated) that the Fed would break something before it reached its 2% inflation goal. We saw a small break with the recent Silicon Valley Bank and Signature Bank failures. Now, we’re seeing those cracks widen with a lower-than-expected Q1 2023 GDP growth rate of 1.1%. But the story isn’t all doom and …
Positivity has been scarce in the economic commentaries of 2022. Our news feeds have been filled with talks of market downturns, bubbles bursting, geopolitical tensions tightening, and pandemics dragging on. The negative coverage isn’t misplaced, as we’re likely in a recession (whether the NBER has officially declared it or not). But as with most things, …
A recession is a significant decline in economic activity spread across the economy, lasting more than a few months, normally visible in real GDP, real income, employment, industrial production, and wholesale-retail sales (National Bureau of Economic Research). We’ve already seen one quarter of economic decline, but whether we cross the technical threshold of a recession …
What happened to the right side of the “V”? Since the dawn of the pandemic-induced economic shutdown, we’ve heard about and hoped for a sharp and steadfast recovery. The pain was supposed to be short lived—a brief, yet steep economic decline followed by an equally swift rebound. While the recovery was in fact the fastest …
Economic Conditions Seem to Be Deteriorating – What It Means For Advisors and Investors Read More »
Inflation is on a lot of people’s minds, and for good reason. An unprecedented amount of money has been (and continues to be) injected into the U.S. economy. Logic follows that more money chasing the same amount of goods and services (or in our current economy, fewer goods and drastically fewer services) will eventually result …
A big boat gets stuck in a canal halfway around the world and the price of coffee goes up… If you haven’t heard, last week brought trouble to the global trade environment when a massive Taiwanese shipping vessel, the Ever Given, became lodged sideways in the Suez Canal. The result is the equivalent of a …
Big Boats, Black Swans, and the Importance of Preparing for the Unlikely Read More »